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From New York Times bestselling author and economics columnist Robert Frank, a compelling book that explains why the rich underestimate the importance of luck in their success, why that hurts everyone, and what we can do about itHow important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine. In Success and Luck, bestselling author and New York Times economics columnist Robert Frank explores the surprising implications of those findings to show why the rich underestimate the importance of luck in success-and why that hurts everyone, even the wealthy.Frank describes how, in a world increasingly dominated by winner-take-all markets, chance opportunities and trivial initial advantages often translate into much larger ones-and enormous income differences-over time; how false beliefs about luck persist, despite compelling evidence against them; and how myths about personal success and luck shape individual and political choices in harmful ways.But, Frank argues, we could decrease the inequality driven by sheer luck by adopting simple, unintrusive policies that would free up trillions of dollars each year-more than enough to fix our crumbling infrastructure, expand healthcare coverage, fight global warming, and reduce poverty, all without requiring painful sacrifices from anyone. If this sounds implausible, you'll be surprised to discover that the solution requires only a few, noncontroversial steps.Compellingly readable, Success and Luck shows how a more accurate understanding of the role of chance in life could lead to better, richer, and fairer economies and societies.… (more)
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The author then tries to apply this to the national scene, arguing that the way to make society fairer and even out the chance fortune of luck is to institute a consumption tax. The link, apparently, is the argument that since so few of us can gain by luck, it would be better to restructure our tax policy in a way that would "raise all boats."
The problem is the reader expects to be reading about behavioral economics, not tax policy. (A change in subtitle might have helped this.) The abrupt shift from one to the other is difficult to make, and leaves the reader struggling to catch up. If you're interested in an exploration of why people end up on top read the first portion of this book, stop when you get to the tax policy discussion, and add in Talent Is Overrated: What Really Separates World-Class Performers from Everybody Else by Geoff Colvin and David Drummond.
The loose hinge is that when people realize and acknowledge how big a role luck has played in their success, they become more generous and willing to accept more public spending... hence, we can push the progressive consumption tax, which we need for these other reasons. Get it? It's loose.
I didn't learn much from the success & luck part - I've already read Malcolm Gladwell. One takeaway is how depressing and non-motivating it is to acknowledge the role of luck; so from a mood perspective, we're best adopting the following attitude: all my PAST success was due to luck, but all my FUTURE success will be due to effort.
I do want to note that the guy has got a wonderful skill at spinning his own attitude, based on this personal information he shared: he was an adoptee, and discovered in adulthood that the family that relinquished him was quite well-to-do, coming from old money. And he is THANKFUL, because if he'd grown up with a trust fund, he wouldn't have made the effort to achieve any of the things that he ended up doing. That's really something, being so grateful to have been given up for adoption into more needy circumstances than you would have otherwise. Whatever, if it works for you, great!
Followers of Antãology believe luck determines most of our lives.
If we fast forward 13.8 billion years simple probability gets us to this point. Since the universe is everything, it's every possibility and that it includes the possibility of me being right here, right
But certainly there's a bit of luck involved that I and the other 7B on the planet happen to exist right now, in this place. Now jumping forward, when, where and to whom we're born is entirely out of our hands. Plus we should try and avoid disabilities, mental illnesses, terminal illnesses, being killed in a car accident or any of the other variables that determine how difficult life can be if we even get a life.
At some point we get a say in things. We take what we're given and we have to make the most of it. It's hard to say how much is down to us and how much is down to luck. If we just take our lifetimes, my current thinking it's about 90 percent luck and 10 percent on us. That's not a defeatist attitude or relying on faith. If it is only 10 percent then we've got to make that 10 percent count. This allows us to focus on the things we control and things we don't control. We need to focus on the stuff we control and not worry about the stuff we don't.
I think it's really important that people appreciate the role luck plays in life. People who have it, don't appreciate it. People who don't, blame themselves. If you appreciate luck then you appreciate life. If you consider how monumentally fortunate you are to live in a country without war and famine then you will appreciate it more. You will be less angry and bitter, more understanding of people in the world who didn't get your luck and generally just a nicer person to be around (and less prone to being manipulated).
Equally when things are monumentally shit in your life, don't be afraid to put it down to luck. It doesn't make it less shit but at least you won't blame yourself for being hit by lightening that time you decided to play golf in a storm (ok if wasn't entirely down to bad luck).