Status
Available
Call number
Genres
Publication
New York : Henry Holt and Co., 2015.
Description
"For more than forty years, the United States has reached out to China, helping it develop a booming economy and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that there is little to fear--and everything to gain--from China's rise. But what if the Chinese have had a different plan all along? The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on Chinese documents, speeches, and books (many of them never translated into English) to reveal the roots of this strategy in traditional Chinese statecraft and track how the Chinese are putting it into practice today. Pillsbury shows how American policymakers have been willfully blind to these developments for decades--and he includes himself in that critique, as he was once a leading voice in favor of aiding China. He also calls for the United States to design a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wakeup call for all Americans concerned about how we have misread the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century"--… (more)
User reviews
LibraryThing member IronMike
At the end of World War II the United States co-opted the Nazi spy network…Hitler’s Intelligencia or C.I.A. (If you will…). The USA did this in order to keep the USSR in check through Eastern Europe. Then, in 1971, several years after the Korean War in which the Chinese Army helped to kill
Since then the USA has been aiding China. In our schools we teach our people that China is a victim of the past actions of imperialist USA and imperialist Japan. There is, of course, some truth to this.
But China had plans. According to Michael Pillsbury in his new book, The Hundred Year Marathon, China had plans to become the world’s leading power in a hundred years, beginning in 1949. I will be dead in 2049 but some of you will still be around. The USA has been misled by its leaders. In every election cycle for the past forty years or so the USA has put into office a smug collection of suits (and pants-suits) who may be intelligent, but who know little about how the world actually works outside the Beltway. And what little they do know of what goes on outside the Beltway is often dead wrong. Our elected officials depend heavily on information received from “experts.” These “experts” are subject to the same pressures to conform to the consensus opinion as were the experts who brought the economy to a crash in 2008, and their interpretations of world events which they then share with elected officials are likely a bit more optimistic than are warranted by events.
So pay attention to this book, young people! I picked up this book “The Hundred Year Marathon,” expecting to disagree with whatever the author had written. I especially expected to disagree when I read the following disclaimer at the beginning of the book, which I partially quote below:
“The CIA, the FBI, The Office of the Secretary of Defense, and an agency of the Defense Department reviewed this book prior to publication…” Egad!
However, Michael Pillsbury has written an eye-opener. If you want to learn some of the truth of what is happening in the real world, read this book.
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more than 30,000 Americans, President Nixon shook hands with Chairman Mao Zedong. The USA and China were now buddies, and The USSR (now Russia) was caught in a mini-pincer move (or so we thought.)Since then the USA has been aiding China. In our schools we teach our people that China is a victim of the past actions of imperialist USA and imperialist Japan. There is, of course, some truth to this.
But China had plans. According to Michael Pillsbury in his new book, The Hundred Year Marathon, China had plans to become the world’s leading power in a hundred years, beginning in 1949. I will be dead in 2049 but some of you will still be around. The USA has been misled by its leaders. In every election cycle for the past forty years or so the USA has put into office a smug collection of suits (and pants-suits) who may be intelligent, but who know little about how the world actually works outside the Beltway. And what little they do know of what goes on outside the Beltway is often dead wrong. Our elected officials depend heavily on information received from “experts.” These “experts” are subject to the same pressures to conform to the consensus opinion as were the experts who brought the economy to a crash in 2008, and their interpretations of world events which they then share with elected officials are likely a bit more optimistic than are warranted by events.
So pay attention to this book, young people! I picked up this book “The Hundred Year Marathon,” expecting to disagree with whatever the author had written. I especially expected to disagree when I read the following disclaimer at the beginning of the book, which I partially quote below:
“The CIA, the FBI, The Office of the Secretary of Defense, and an agency of the Defense Department reviewed this book prior to publication…” Egad!
However, Michael Pillsbury has written an eye-opener. If you want to learn some of the truth of what is happening in the real world, read this book.
Show Less
LibraryThing member jrgoetziii
I have no passion for modern China; only for Chinese-American women.
That said, The Hundred-Year Marathon presents a compelling, but not conclusive, picture of a China whose policy is dictated by its hawks and whose intentions are ambiguous at best, threatening and hostile at worst. Michael
Pillsbury suggests that the Chinese military and Politburo are controlled by figures who emphasize the ancient wisdom of China's 'Warring States' period. This wisdom focuses on how to topple and replace a tyrannic hegemon with a more benign state actor. It is easy to see how the current United States can be seen as such a hegemon, and it is easy to see how these lessons might be used by the Chinese in ways that are not favorable to the U.S. Methods include the use and abuse of benign 'concessions' (a term I use tentatively because the larger power generally offers these voluntarily and without ulterior motives) to build strength before a final, deadly encounter. Pillsbury suggests that the United States has already made several such concessions, and that China is trying to avoid provoking the United States by keeping its military personnel small while building up its technological and financial infrastructure and capabilities in preparation for that fatal encounter.
However----Pillsbury falls into an old trap wherein the Chinese are blessed with super-human wisdom, while the U.S. is filled with stupid white people. This is a bastardization of Rousseau's famous concept of the 'noble savage,' and it carries with it a patronizing view that Asians--not just Chinese--make up for physical deformity (small size, unusual eye and facial structure) by having godly intelligence. I find it offensive both to them and to me as a brilliant--no, THE most brilliant--white man. I have met plenty of stupid Asians. Thus I have a very hard time conceding that they are smarter than we are, though I do believe that the Communist leadership can better spot talent than our leadership can. (I remain drastically underemployed.) This means that whatever advantages China does have stems from its political bearings rather than its racial, ethnic, or historical ones.
Moreover, Pillsbury admits that he failed to see this earlier, and presents himself as a recent convert to a position that should have been obvious much before. While this is one possible stance to take, it marks his judgment as somewhat unreliable, and leads to questions of how seriously we can take his interpretations of events.
The information is important to process, but it also must be parsed carefully and compared with other perspectives because I suspect it of being partially removed from its proper context. Nevertheless I would recommend this book as a secondary read alongside Kissinger's On China and other books about the country such as China Road.
That said, The Hundred-Year Marathon presents a compelling, but not conclusive, picture of a China whose policy is dictated by its hawks and whose intentions are ambiguous at best, threatening and hostile at worst. Michael
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Pillsbury, a longtime quasi-intelligence analyst who is fluent in Mandarin Chinese, seeks to expose at length the economic, military, and political goals of modern China.Pillsbury suggests that the Chinese military and Politburo are controlled by figures who emphasize the ancient wisdom of China's 'Warring States' period. This wisdom focuses on how to topple and replace a tyrannic hegemon with a more benign state actor. It is easy to see how the current United States can be seen as such a hegemon, and it is easy to see how these lessons might be used by the Chinese in ways that are not favorable to the U.S. Methods include the use and abuse of benign 'concessions' (a term I use tentatively because the larger power generally offers these voluntarily and without ulterior motives) to build strength before a final, deadly encounter. Pillsbury suggests that the United States has already made several such concessions, and that China is trying to avoid provoking the United States by keeping its military personnel small while building up its technological and financial infrastructure and capabilities in preparation for that fatal encounter.
However----Pillsbury falls into an old trap wherein the Chinese are blessed with super-human wisdom, while the U.S. is filled with stupid white people. This is a bastardization of Rousseau's famous concept of the 'noble savage,' and it carries with it a patronizing view that Asians--not just Chinese--make up for physical deformity (small size, unusual eye and facial structure) by having godly intelligence. I find it offensive both to them and to me as a brilliant--no, THE most brilliant--white man. I have met plenty of stupid Asians. Thus I have a very hard time conceding that they are smarter than we are, though I do believe that the Communist leadership can better spot talent than our leadership can. (I remain drastically underemployed.) This means that whatever advantages China does have stems from its political bearings rather than its racial, ethnic, or historical ones.
Moreover, Pillsbury admits that he failed to see this earlier, and presents himself as a recent convert to a position that should have been obvious much before. While this is one possible stance to take, it marks his judgment as somewhat unreliable, and leads to questions of how seriously we can take his interpretations of events.
The information is important to process, but it also must be parsed carefully and compared with other perspectives because I suspect it of being partially removed from its proper context. Nevertheless I would recommend this book as a secondary read alongside Kissinger's On China and other books about the country such as China Road.
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LibraryThing member sherman1951
Michael Pillsbury has worked as a defense policy advisor since the Nixon presidency. He may even have had some responsibility for the “opening” of China and the restoration of diplomatic relations with the U.S. However, his view of China today has moved about 180 degrees and now can be
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considered a voice of the neo-cons and their view of China as a threat to the U.S. role as the global superpower. It is not necessarily an unwarranted view. While U.S. interests want to believe that China is turning into both a capitalist and democratic society, Pillsbury argues that the Politburo is controlled by the hard-right military intent on securing world domination by 2050. We are, in part, responsible for China’s resurgence as an economic power. Our consumer interests of wanting inexpensive TVs, smartphones, and other products sold cheaply at Wal-Mart have limited our ability to view China’s secret strategy. Providing new translations for Chinese language he paints a dark picture of the future. It certainly does not appear that China is any closer to democracy than it was in 1989 and its control of the Internet within its borders shows that the Chinese government continues to fear transparency and dissent. While I remained concerned about the author’s conversion, his book provides an important starting point for a discussion on our continued relations with China. Show Less
LibraryThing member mfvetter
I reviewed a pre-publication copy of Michael Pillsbury’s book, The Hundred Year Marathon, subtitled China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. This book was an eye-opener for me in a number of ways. Let me begin by saying that I am a ‘layman’ interested in China
He distances himself for so-called China experts who do not have a fluent grasp of spoken and written Mandarin or the history of ancient China. He has a practical background in the language, literature, and history of China. My conclusion is that Michael Pillsbury knows his stuff when it comes to his area of expertise.
I found Dr. Pillsbury’s explanation of the Warring Period of China’s history to explain a lot, which certainly was his intention in this book. Since he found so many direct quotations from or subtle references to the 36 Strategies in modern Chinese military writings, it seems he is on to something when he reveals what he calls a hidden strategy that the senior foreign policy leadership of the U.S. do not know or refuse to accept.
I appreciated his extensive use of untranslated books, articles, monographs, and reports obtained from high-ranking, cooperative Chinese army officers or from Chinese defectors with inside information. These extensively footnoted sources clearly support his claim that China has a long-term strategy of lulling the U.S. into friendly cooperation while secretly pressing toward their goal of defeating the U.S. and becoming the world’s hegemon by the year 2049.
This book is not for the casual reader or for someone with only a passing interest in China since it delves heavily into esoteric and nuanced policy arguments. China “wonks” will read it because it stirs up controversies that analysts will argue abut between now and 2049. For those who are not fluent in Mandarin, who are immersed in U.S. foreign policy with China, or who have ongoing commercial business in the country or with its official representatives, this book is a must-read. If they do not grasp the hidden agenda that guides all Chinese interactions with the U.S., they contribute to the decline of the U.S. and will empower China’s rise to the world stage as the next superpower.
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who spent 30 years directly or indirectly working for the technical and analytic sides of the intelligence community—none of them involving China.He distances himself for so-called China experts who do not have a fluent grasp of spoken and written Mandarin or the history of ancient China. He has a practical background in the language, literature, and history of China. My conclusion is that Michael Pillsbury knows his stuff when it comes to his area of expertise.
I found Dr. Pillsbury’s explanation of the Warring Period of China’s history to explain a lot, which certainly was his intention in this book. Since he found so many direct quotations from or subtle references to the 36 Strategies in modern Chinese military writings, it seems he is on to something when he reveals what he calls a hidden strategy that the senior foreign policy leadership of the U.S. do not know or refuse to accept.
I appreciated his extensive use of untranslated books, articles, monographs, and reports obtained from high-ranking, cooperative Chinese army officers or from Chinese defectors with inside information. These extensively footnoted sources clearly support his claim that China has a long-term strategy of lulling the U.S. into friendly cooperation while secretly pressing toward their goal of defeating the U.S. and becoming the world’s hegemon by the year 2049.
This book is not for the casual reader or for someone with only a passing interest in China since it delves heavily into esoteric and nuanced policy arguments. China “wonks” will read it because it stirs up controversies that analysts will argue abut between now and 2049. For those who are not fluent in Mandarin, who are immersed in U.S. foreign policy with China, or who have ongoing commercial business in the country or with its official representatives, this book is a must-read. If they do not grasp the hidden agenda that guides all Chinese interactions with the U.S., they contribute to the decline of the U.S. and will empower China’s rise to the world stage as the next superpower.
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LibraryThing member Jim_Sipe
The details and insight that the author portrayed in this book were a great perspective on China today and tomorrow. I found "China's Seven Fears" to be an interesting perspective, but from my point as an American to be unfounded (I hope they are unfounded). Pillsbury closes the book with
Mr Pillsbury made reference to a book written by Lee Kuan Yew and his views on China. I purchased the book and found that both authors appeared to be totally in sync.
A recommended read for anyone interested in the current world dynamics.
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recommendations that the United States should follow. I am wondering how a person could track these recommendations to see if any of them are followed in future administrations. Mr Pillsbury made reference to a book written by Lee Kuan Yew and his views on China. I purchased the book and found that both authors appeared to be totally in sync.
A recommended read for anyone interested in the current world dynamics.
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LibraryThing member jlbrownn23
Michael Pillsbury presents a case for the Chinese plan to be the dominant world power by the middle of the 21st century.
Although the book does provide an interesting perspective on Modern China and its politics, it seems to me to overstate the case. He presents the idea that China desires to be a
To me what this book likely represents is “what does the Chinese version of the Tea Party think like?”, Which is to say that it is a good account of a strong voice in the Chinese government, but not the dominant voice. Prosperity has and will continue to change the way the society as a whole thinks and behaves, and as old generals die off and young professionals who were born and raised in relative prosperity take over, it is hard for me to imagine the hard line views becoming the main stream. And those younger voices will likely appreciate the roll of America as a partner in their prosperity.
One big thing that was missing was a discussion on how the demographics of the one child policy will impact China’s growth in the future. We see what a demographic bubble is doing to Japan, what will happen when it hits China? It seems likely it will create internal problems in China that will take some of their focus off external projection.
Also, I think China’s failure to fully embrace free market capitalism will catch up with them. Pillsbury suggests that China’s brand of government sponsored economics give them a leg up, but I tend to have the same outlook I did with communism – if it REALLY IS better, let it win. I of course knew that it WASN’T, and would eventually be discredited. I think the same thing will happen with China’s system – it may be useful to a point, but the inefficiencies introduced by government mandates will eventually prove to be a big drag and will need to be abandoned or they will destroy growth.
I’ll close with some stories of my own (admittedly fairly limited) travels in China, and how they undermine my belief in Pillsbury’s thesis.
On a trip in 2006, I was talking to a colleague about the recently completed construction of the Jin Mao Tower in Shanghai, and the ongoing construction (at the time) of the World Financial Center. She mentioned that China was in competition with Taiwan over what country had the tallest building, with Jin Mao/Taipei 101/World Financial Center trading the lead back and forth. I said, with tongue somewhat in cheek, “but they are the same country!” She said back, no tongue in cheek, “that’s right”. My point here is that she seemed to agree with the government viewpoint that Taiwan SHOULD be part of China, but she realized as a practical matter is was very much its own country.
The other incident I found informative was discussing US television. I was talking about which US television shows I watched, and a Chinese colleague told me I should watch “Prison Break”. At the time it was in its first season, and he came in the next day with a DVD burned with all of the episodes, including the current one!
My point is that people are a little smarter and the world is a little more open than you might think. Deep down they know claiming Taiwan as part of China is empty propaganda. And if they are watching all of our TV shows at the same time as we do, how badly can they be misled about our culture? China does seem likely to become a dominant power, but as they grow they’ll have enough problems of their own to deal with for them to want to instigate any great conflict with the US. And really, isn’t the world big enough for both of us anyway? Would the return of the Monroe Doctrine really be some great tragedy?
Although the book does provide an interesting perspective on Modern China and its politics, it seems to me to overstate the case. He presents the idea that China desires to be a
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dominant world power as if it should be a surprise to anybody. To me, if a country is the most populous on earth, has a long history of culture and education, and a strong economy, they probably SHOULD be a world power. I am not sure what the US could (or should) do to stop this. He also points to the government misrepresenting history and world events to further their own viewpoint. This is hardly unique – it was Churchill who said “history is written by the victors”, and last I checked he wasn’t Chinese.To me what this book likely represents is “what does the Chinese version of the Tea Party think like?”, Which is to say that it is a good account of a strong voice in the Chinese government, but not the dominant voice. Prosperity has and will continue to change the way the society as a whole thinks and behaves, and as old generals die off and young professionals who were born and raised in relative prosperity take over, it is hard for me to imagine the hard line views becoming the main stream. And those younger voices will likely appreciate the roll of America as a partner in their prosperity.
One big thing that was missing was a discussion on how the demographics of the one child policy will impact China’s growth in the future. We see what a demographic bubble is doing to Japan, what will happen when it hits China? It seems likely it will create internal problems in China that will take some of their focus off external projection.
Also, I think China’s failure to fully embrace free market capitalism will catch up with them. Pillsbury suggests that China’s brand of government sponsored economics give them a leg up, but I tend to have the same outlook I did with communism – if it REALLY IS better, let it win. I of course knew that it WASN’T, and would eventually be discredited. I think the same thing will happen with China’s system – it may be useful to a point, but the inefficiencies introduced by government mandates will eventually prove to be a big drag and will need to be abandoned or they will destroy growth.
I’ll close with some stories of my own (admittedly fairly limited) travels in China, and how they undermine my belief in Pillsbury’s thesis.
On a trip in 2006, I was talking to a colleague about the recently completed construction of the Jin Mao Tower in Shanghai, and the ongoing construction (at the time) of the World Financial Center. She mentioned that China was in competition with Taiwan over what country had the tallest building, with Jin Mao/Taipei 101/World Financial Center trading the lead back and forth. I said, with tongue somewhat in cheek, “but they are the same country!” She said back, no tongue in cheek, “that’s right”. My point here is that she seemed to agree with the government viewpoint that Taiwan SHOULD be part of China, but she realized as a practical matter is was very much its own country.
The other incident I found informative was discussing US television. I was talking about which US television shows I watched, and a Chinese colleague told me I should watch “Prison Break”. At the time it was in its first season, and he came in the next day with a DVD burned with all of the episodes, including the current one!
My point is that people are a little smarter and the world is a little more open than you might think. Deep down they know claiming Taiwan as part of China is empty propaganda. And if they are watching all of our TV shows at the same time as we do, how badly can they be misled about our culture? China does seem likely to become a dominant power, but as they grow they’ll have enough problems of their own to deal with for them to want to instigate any great conflict with the US. And really, isn’t the world big enough for both of us anyway? Would the return of the Monroe Doctrine really be some great tragedy?
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LibraryThing member mramos
Michael Pillsbury has worked as a defense policy advisor on China starting with President Nixon and has continued to d so through this very administration. Lack of the U.S. assets with mandarin language, any intelligence network in China (they have one in the U.S.) and unfamiliarity with Chinese
Even when China plans are reveled to the U.S. government by its on assets and high level Chinese defecators; the U.S. seems determined to continue down a self destructive path that has been well laid out by China. The author shows how the U.S could stop this threat at any time but seems to turn a blind eye to it.
I truly enjoyed the history of the warring states period in China and how they have been using those lessons in their foreign policy to protect and enhance their interest In the front of the book is a note that states that the CIA, the FBI, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and an agency of the Defense Department reviewed this book prior to publication. If China succeeds at become the worlds only super power it will have been accomplished by the aid given by the U.S.
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world view lead the U.S. open relations with China. Over the next decades the author became better informed as he gain access to Chinese documents and interviews with their officials has lead Pillsbury to understand China plans to become the worlds only super power.Even when China plans are reveled to the U.S. government by its on assets and high level Chinese defecators; the U.S. seems determined to continue down a self destructive path that has been well laid out by China. The author shows how the U.S could stop this threat at any time but seems to turn a blind eye to it.
I truly enjoyed the history of the warring states period in China and how they have been using those lessons in their foreign policy to protect and enhance their interest In the front of the book is a note that states that the CIA, the FBI, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and an agency of the Defense Department reviewed this book prior to publication. If China succeeds at become the worlds only super power it will have been accomplished by the aid given by the U.S.
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LibraryThing member hermit
Michael Pillsbury has worked as a policy advisor for ever U.S. administration from Nixon to Obama. He started out his career pro-China and assisted in opening and continuing dialogue and intelligence on China. He shows how the U.S. based its decision on wishful thinking and western concepts which
The author posits that after over half a century of dialogue and research he now understands the grand strategy and patience that China has been using to become the worlds only super power. His research includes numerous never translated material, many not meant for use by any except Chinese military officers. The U.S. thinks it is helping a potential ally become stronger while China looks to all other countries as an enemy to be over come.
It does seem that many U.S. politicians may be aware of China’s real plans and yet continue to ignore the threat for monetary gain. As we finish the book it seems that unless the U.S. changes its foreign policy toward China, China may become the only world power by 2050.
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China did not and does not follow. The author has over time changed his opinion as he has gathered more intelligence and become more nuanced in the Chinese thought process and view of history. The author posits that after over half a century of dialogue and research he now understands the grand strategy and patience that China has been using to become the worlds only super power. His research includes numerous never translated material, many not meant for use by any except Chinese military officers. The U.S. thinks it is helping a potential ally become stronger while China looks to all other countries as an enemy to be over come.
It does seem that many U.S. politicians may be aware of China’s real plans and yet continue to ignore the threat for monetary gain. As we finish the book it seems that unless the U.S. changes its foreign policy toward China, China may become the only world power by 2050.
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LibraryThing member chgstrom
Michael Pillsbury is a China expert, and has advised presidents for decades. He admits to being wrong about China - for many years, he felt they were making progress towards democracy and capitalism. Over the past few years, he has become increasingly skeptical and now believes the Chinese are on
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their way to replace the U.S,A. as the world's superpower. Even though this is a difficult topic, the book is straightforward and easy to understand. Show Less
LibraryThing member scottcholstad
A hugely important book while incredibly controversial. I realize people will disagree, but I fail to see how the dovish China "analysts" are so quick to dismiss Pillsbury in general and this book in particular. I've read most of their books and they don't come close to making as convincing a case
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as Pillsbury does, nor can any of them document their materials to back up their premises nearly as well as this author does. I bought into this almost immediately and have not changed my outlook since. Show Less
LibraryThing member Paul_S
I am impressed how paranoid the author is. It's exactly the kind of paranoia you want from an analyst. What I don't like is the hypocrisy of the west. We complain about China doing all kinds of terrible things and yet claim outrageously that somehow we're not guilty of the same exact thing. When
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you point it out it's always the same excuse: when we do it, we do it for good reasons. Even more depressing is that this sort of bias is considered patriotic. Show Less
LibraryThing member stevesbookstuff
A very interesting read from someone who clearly knows his stuff. His main thesis is that America has been fooled by China, who has been on a path to overtake the US since the time of Nixon. And he has convincing insider information from his time as a "spy" to bring to bear. So much so that you
But there is something about how he tells his story that makes you think that perhaps he's overcompensating for the times he feels he was duped by China to now thinking China can do no wrong. And then you wonder if perhaps his judgment may be wrong now just as it was wrong before, and perhaps there is hope for the US. I am not convinced that present US leadership has the skills to meet the challenge. But this book has certainly made me rethink what I thought I knew about America's relations with China.
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become convinced that it may be too late for the US to do anything about it.But there is something about how he tells his story that makes you think that perhaps he's overcompensating for the times he feels he was duped by China to now thinking China can do no wrong. And then you wonder if perhaps his judgment may be wrong now just as it was wrong before, and perhaps there is hope for the US. I am not convinced that present US leadership has the skills to meet the challenge. But this book has certainly made me rethink what I thought I knew about America's relations with China.
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Subjects
Awards
Christian Science Monitor Best Book (Nonfiction — 2015)
Language
ISBN
9781627790109